Latin America: Brazil: in D-7 of the presidential election, a victory for Lula in the 1st round is possible

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SentSeptember 26, 2022 at 02:16

Latin AmericaBrazil: a possible victory for Lula in the 1st round, 7 days before the presidential election

Brazil enters the crux of an extremely polarized campaign that is epitomized in a brutal duel between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula that seems unlikely to be picked in the first round.

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Lula is in Rio on September 25, 2022.

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If 11 candidates line up at the start, the struggle between former left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (47% of voting intentions according to the latest Datafolha poll) and far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (33%), beware.

“We need to talk to the undecided and those who are considering not voting,” Lula said at a rally in front of thousands of supporters at the Portela samba school in Rio on Sunday.

It is consistent that opinion polls have given Lula, who was president and leader of the Labor Party (PT, left) from 2003 to 2010, a third mandate to run the first power in Latin America in months.

“Lula’s government was very good: my kids were able to graduate from college, I was able to buy myself a car. Sandra Chaves, a 60-year-old black man who came to listen to Lula at the Portela samba school on Sunday, told AFP, “I want him back because I want everything to be the way it was before.”

rally to Lula

The former steelworker left power with stratospheric approval ratings (87%) before being disgraced in prison for corruption (2018-2019) and prevented from escaping again. His election at the age of 76 would mark a remarkable comeback. It has a dynamic. “Polls say there is a real possibility for Lula to win in the first round on October 2,” says Fernanda Magnotta, an analyst at FAAP in São Paulo.

Lula could benefit from a “beneficial vote” if “voters for less competitive candidates like Ciro Gomes migrate to him”, explains Lula, about the centre-left candidate, third in the polls ahead of Simone Tebet (center) (7% -correct, 5%) .

The much-talked about “useful vote” became the dominant theme of Lula’s campaign. In recent days, Lula has surfed with a wave of support: former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2003) asked Brazilians to vote “for democracy”, with former Environment Minister Marina Silva joining him after a long hiatus.

Left-wing politicians and intellectuals in Latin America called for Ciro Gomes to resign to facilitate Lula’s victory. But on Friday, Jair Bolsonaro, 67, of the Liberal Party (PL), said at a meeting in Minas Gerais (southeast): “1. We will win in the round”.

“Election Fraud”

“Hopefully we will win in the first round,” he repeated live on social media on Sunday. “The other side is not bringing people on the street together, how will they win in the first round? It seems difficult to me… no: impossible. Just stop,” added the outgoing president.

On Telegram, Bolsonarist networks are campaigning to explain that if their champion is not elected on October 2, it will be because the election is rigged.

The fear that the attack on the Capitol will be shot again in Brazil is on everyone’s mind. “It could be dangerous,” says Ms. Magnotta.

Because the former commander of the army can count on ready-made battalions of supporters. He has several times viciously attacked the institutions of young Brazilian democracy, such as the Supreme Court, and has waged a vigorous campaign against electronic ballot boxes that, in his view, would encourage “fraud”.

But suddenly lowering his tone, this unpredictable president also announced that he would retire from politics if he lost. Therefore, it is impossible to predict the sequence of events in the evening of the first round.

“thief”, “clumsy”

Bolsonaro and Lula’s campaign was marked by personal attacks (“thief”, “inadequate”) rather than the delivery of programs. The newspaper “O Globo” urged Lula on Saturday to propose a “coherent economic project” because “if he wins, no one knows how to manage it”.

Candidates crossed huge Brazil and held numerous meetings in bulletproof vests.

In this country that hosts the Amazon, the theme of environment and climate is out of the way, as opposed to hunger, inflation or corruption, which are the concerns of the majority of the 214 million Brazilians.

To create a broad network, Lula sought to seduce the evangelicals, who formed the base of Jair Bolsonaro’s voters, with pro-agribusiness and arms supporters. He also chose to run for Geraldo Alckmin, the very moderate ex-governor of São Paulo from the centre-right, to appease markets that were worried about his election.

For his part, Jair Bolsonaro is unsuccessfully trying to seduce a female electorate, who mostly eludes him for his sexist remarks and, according to polls, drives Lula’s stronghold, Nordeste, without much influence.

Misinformation is on the rise on social networks like never before. It is also widely quoted by the presidential candidates themselves, on television and even last Tuesday on the UN platform by Jair Bolsonaro.

The opening week will see the last of the sworn enemies bring their last forces into battle with large gatherings and on Thursday, the highly anticipated television debates that, unlike Saturday, should have Lula ready.


Source From: Google News

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