Interview – The impact of the war in Ukraine will be global and widespread

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Posted inMarch 20, 2022 at 07:48

Here are some key answers to the questions we asked ourselves as Ukraine’s warring neighbors with an economist from the European Development Bank.

Demonstration in support of Ukrainians in Bucharest, Romania.

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AFP

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Beata, chief economist of the European Development Bank (EBRD), speaking to AFP, explains that the war in Ukraine will have important consequences for Eastern Europe and the world, and a slowdown in global growth is likely. javorcik.

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How much will it cost to rebuild Ukraine?

Beata Javorcik: It will depend on the duration of the war that has been going on for three weeks. Most of the country is working – infrastructure, banking system, businesses are still open. A figure of $100 billion comes from the Ukrainian government (…) and corresponds to the cost of infrastructure and buildings that have already been demolished.

What will be the impact of the influx of refugees in neighboring countries?

If the conflict continues, the number of refugees could reach six million people. It is enormous and difficult to manage for host countries.

How will sanctions affect Russia?

Penalties have two aspects. It is a short-term cost that will arise due to the loss of international trade, loss of consumer confidence, depreciation of the ruble.

If sanctions on exports of high-tech products continue, access to information from these goods will be lost, which could weaken the movement of scientists and students to and from Russia.

What will be the impact on the global economy?

This conflict will reverberate around the world, and its consequences will be felt not just this year, but at least next year. Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of world wheat exports. Ukrainian farmers have not yet sold their harvests last year. Black Sea shipments have been disrupted and, more importantly, Ukrainian farmers are still not planting. In addition, Russia and Belarus are producers of ammonia and potash, which are fertilizer components. Fertilizer prices are rising, affecting farmers in Asia and the United States.

Nickel, copper, platinum and palladium exported from the region are components used in renewable energies. (Editor’s note, they have seen their prices rise since the beginning of the conflict due to supply risks).

Gas price in Europe is at record highs and oil prices are very high, making coal relatively cheap and therefore incentives to stop using it (this very polluting fuel) may decrease.

All this will accelerate inflation, with more serious consequences for the poorest countries, with effects on poverty and political stability.

(AFP)

Source From: Google News

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