Heatwave: ‘We’re stunned, the calendar is accelerating,’ admits climatologist

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Climatologist and meteorologist Robert Vautard recognizes that IPCC scenarios already underestimate past evolution, giving reason to question the future.

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Facing record-breaking heat and drought summers, climatologist and meteorologist Robert Vautard, chapter coordinator of the IPCC Sixth Report, told franceinfo on Thursday, 11 August, that these extreme events are Acknowledging that beyond established models, scientists “Everyone Surprised”. on the other hand “Calendar is accelerating”, France warns that we need to prepare for 50 degrees.

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franceinfo: How do you see the heat wave continuing in France and Europe?

Robert Voutard: Not only this summer, but in the years before that, not only was it the impressive record already broken in France in 2019, but also the famous record of 49 degrees in British Columbia, Canada, in 2021. , we are all surprised. far north. Climatologists are truly amazed that these records have been broken so drastically. Records are usually broken at most once or twice, and they’re even bigger there. The schedule is accelerating.

Isn’t this in line with what the IPCC has predicted and warned about for years?

The IPCC scenario already underestimates past developments and can clearly raise questions about the future. But that cannot be said unless we find the cause of this underestimation of the model for the situation in Western Europe. Subject to research. Nonetheless, evolution is likely to continue to be stronger than predicted.Especially in Europe, especially in the West, temperatures that could persist all summer long into the next decades and even years to come. In fact, our model predicts evolution today and tomorrow, but observations show it to be faster than expected. increase. Normally in London the heat wave is 4 degrees higher for him, whereas in the model he is nearly 2 degrees higher.

“We are underestimating the speed of change. It is very clear. I think we are not ready.”

Robert Vautard, climatologist and meteorologist

at franceinfo

What is your role as a scientist?

We scientists must calmly warn of the unknown. That’s why I can freely say that we need to be prepared for a very high scenario like 50 degrees in France. is there, so you need to know how to prepare for it.

Source: Francetvinfo

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